Over the next three years, businesses predict that a rise in artificial intelligence (AI) adoption will boost productivity by around 1.4% and increase output by 0.8% on average.
Organisations also expect the increased adoption of AI technologies to reduce employment by around 0.7% in the same time frame, according to responses from more than 5,000 business leaders in the US, UK, Germany, and Australia.
The findings were collected from four surveys conducted by the US Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Bank of England, the Deutsche Bundesbank, and Macquarie University between November 2025 and January 2026.
In all four countries, the surveys found that a majority of businesses are using some AI technology, with adoption highest in the US (78% of organisations), followed by the UK (71%), Germany (65%), and Australia (59%).
In addition, 75% of companies expect to be using some AI technology over the next three years, according to a report on the findings by the Centre for Economic Policy Research.
While organisations estimate that AI has had “little impact on their employment” so far, and only a “modest boost to productivity over the past three years”, some predict that AI will have much bigger effects over the medium term.
Overall, 60% of organisations expect no impact from AI on productivity, and 37% expect a positive boost to productivity.
Over the past three years, AI is reported to have boosted productivity by 0.29%, the report said. Most businesses report AI has not affected their productivity, suggesting that the impacts are limited and contained in a small subset of businesses.
Looking ahead, businesses also expect the adoption of AI technologies to influence employment. Sixty-three per cent of businesses expect no impact, and 26% expect a negative effect on employment.
However, this concern is not pronounced in organisations across Germany and Australia, which is possibly due to more regulated labour markets in those countries, the report hypothesised.
“The employment impact of AI on average across all firms is essentially zero over the past three years,” the report said. “Indeed, more than 90% of businesses estimate no impact so far.”
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