Distrust in global leaders and institutions is on the rise. This is one key takeaway from the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026.
“The multilateral system is under pressure. Declining trust, diminishing transparency, and respect for the rule of law, along with heightened protectionism, are threatening long-standing international relations, trade and investment, and increasing the propensity for conflict,” the report said.
Growing distrust is sparking increased fragmentation across global societies. As a result, global leaders surveyed perceive geoeconomic confrontation as the risk most likely to emerge over the next two years. Eighteen per cent of leaders expect geoeconomic confrontation to be the most likely factor to trigger a material global crisis in 2026, up two positions from last year.
“It was clear that a trend of global geoeconomic fragmentation was taking hold,” the report said. “Today, this trend is firmly in place, despite moments in which tensions appear to ease temporarily.”
Heightened geoeconomic confrontation is both a cause and a consequence of the growing vacuum being left by the weakening of multilateral institutions, the report said. With fewer multilateral constraints on unilateral action, rising national barriers and clashing interests could have negative economic and social repercussions across the globe.
“Geoeconomic confrontation is already contributing to a loss of trust affecting international relations. But the reverse is also happening,” the report noted. “Governments are more likely to take hostile actions on trade, investment, and other geoeconomic issues when they feel that the rules-based international system is weakening and they have less to lose than before. This vicious cycle looks set to continue over the next two years.”
Subsequently, misinformation and disinformation and societal polarisation are growing in tandem with geoeconomic concerns. Misinformation and disinformation, sitting in second position in the two-year timeframe below geoeconomic confrontation, remains an acute global concern, with societal polarisation ranked third in short-term risks this year.
Distrust in online information continues to fuel societal polarisation, the report added, making tackling misinformation intrinsic to reducing societal polarisation. Similar to last year’s findings, the convergence of misinformation and polarisation continues to pose immediate risks to global stability.
Technology’s role in fragmentation
Technological developments and new innovations are driving opportunities, but also leading to new risks across domains, from labour markets to information integrity to autonomous weapons systems.
Adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence (AI) is the risk with the largest rise in ranking over time, moving from 30th place on the two-year outlook to fifth place on the 10-year outlook, the report said. “Progress in both AI and quantum technologies are likely to accelerate over the next decade as each fuels further breakthroughs in the other, with potentially cascading risk impacts, including in the context of rising geoeconomic confrontation.”
While driving unprecedented opportunities, technological acceleration is also generating significant risks in the form of misinformation and disinformation and creating anxiety about the potentially adverse long-term outcomes of AI, the report said.
Environmental risks dominate long-term outlook
In the outlook for the next two years, many environmental risks experienced declines in ranking, but over the long term, they were perceived with the most pessimism of all risk categories surveyed.
While environmental risks are present in the top ten over the next two years, with extreme weather events in fourth place and pollution in ninth, a reprioritisation of global risks by respondents has occurred in the short term, focusing more on geoeconomic and societal shocks.
However, extreme weather events, biodiversity loss, and critical change to earth systems make up the top long-term (over the next decade) risks for respondents. “Extreme weather events retains its position as the top risk for 2036, with half of the top ten risks environmental in nature, similar to last year,” the report said. “As extreme weather events are anticipated to increase in intensity over the next decade, climate considerations should be at the forefront of infrastructure development.”
— To comment on this article or to suggest an idea for another article, contact Steph Brown at Stephanie.Brown@aicpa-cima.com.