US business outlook brightens somewhat despite trade, inflation concerns

Finance leaders’ optimism about their own organisations remained the same, sentiment about the global economy improved, and revenue and profit projections showed a slight increase, a quarterly survey shows.

Business leaders are shaking off some of their gloom about the US economy, but they continue to show trepidation about inflation and tariffs, according to a third-quarter survey.

The AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey, which gauges the sentiment of finance decision-makers in the US, continued a theme of uncertainty in results released Thursday. More than half (54%) of the 275 respondents expect a recession this year or next, and about a third (34%) expressed optimism about the domestic economy for the coming year. That optimism is up from 27% the previous quarter but well below the post-election sentiment in December 2024, when 67% were optimistic.

Inflation returned to its spot as the top concern of business and industry respondents, whose 12-month outlooks on revenue and profit rose slightly. Hiring and own-company optimism remained stable, and sentiment about the global economy increased from 19% to 23% optimistic.

The survey was conducted from 5 August to 26 August.

Thirty-seven per cent of executives are optimistic about their own company’s prospects, the same as the previous quarter, and 46% expressed optimism about business expansion — up 3 percentage points from the previous quarter.

Respondents expressing optimism cite the Trump administration’s pro-business stance; pessimists cite concern about the impact of tariffs.

Small gains in KPIs

Business leaders are cautiously regaining confidence, reporting modest improvements in KPIs.

Revenue projections are now at 1.5%, a half-point rebound from last quarter. Profitability rose out of negative territory (-0.3%) with executives forecasting a 0.1% increase for the coming 12 months.

Estimated IT spending increased from a 2.5% pace to 2.8%, and investments in other capital also increased to a rate of 2.1% from last quarter’s 1.4%. More executives are hoping to invest in training and development — 1.2%, up five-tenths from the second quarter.

Hiring intentions fluctuated slightly since last quarter. Sixteen per cent of executives have too few employees and have ambitions to hire — up two points from last quarter. Hesitancy to hire dropped one point to 17%, as did the percentage of leaders who believe they have the right number of employees (51% from 52%).

Strategies for tariff uncertainty

Tariff ramifications are still top of mind for finance executives, but overall uncertainty has waned somewhat. A majority of business executives (58%) said their companies were experiencing moderate to significant uncertainty in business planning because of changing tariff schedules, down from 67% last quarter.

Their main responses so far to tariffs are increasing prices (30%), reducing operating costs (24%), and exploring different supply chain options (23%).

“Survey participants noted some positives, such as pro-business provisions in the recently enacted H.R. 1 and more favorable regulatory policies under the current administration,” said Tom Hood, CPA/CITP, CGMA, executive vice president–Business Engagement & Growth for the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants. “But volatility in trade policy remains a major overhang, and we haven’t seen the full bite of tariffs yet, so the next quarter could be pivotal to perceptions about the economy’s health.”

Jamie J. Roessner is a senior content writer at AICPA and CIMA. To comment on this article or to suggest an idea for another article, contact Neil Amato at Neil.Amato@aicpa-cima.com.

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