While optimism amongst business leaders about the US economy continues to lag, confidence in their own companies increased in the fourth-quarter AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey.
Just 28% of 241 CEOs, CFOs, controllers, and other finance decision-makers surveyed in November said they were optimistic about the US economy for the next 12 months, down from 34% the previous quarter and from 67% at this time a year ago. However, 41% were optimistic about their own companies, a rise from 37% in the third quarter but also lower than the fourth quarter of 2024 (53%).
The decision-makers’ profit and revenue growth projections for their companies rebounded some, with respondents collectively forecasting 2% revenue growth in the next 12 months — up from 1.5% the previous quarter — and 0.8% profit growth, up from 0.1% last quarter.
In a news release Thursday, Tom Hood, CPA/CITP, CGMA, executive vice president–Business Engagement & Growth at the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants, the alliance formed by AICPA and CIMA, said:
“Despite a small decrease in optimism in the economy at large, we’re seeing a mixed picture below that topline figure that underscores some of the volatility companies are experiencing. The good news is business executives are feeling better about their own companies’ expected performance, and that’s reflected in small improvements in profit and revenue projections.”
More than half (52%) said they expected a recession by the end of 2026, including 17% saying a recession is already in progress. Their outlook on the global economy remains low, with 22% expressing optimism, down a point from the previous quarter.
Domestic economic conditions and inflation were cited as the top two challenges facing the leaders’ organisations, swapping spots in the list of top challenges for a third consecutive quarter. Domestic political leadership rose two spots to No. 3 on the list, the highest ranking since the second quarter of 2021.
Other findings of note:
- About half (49%) said they continue to face moderate to significant uncertainty in business planning due to changing tariff schedules, an improvement from 58% last quarter. For the second consecutive quarter, 64% said tariffs had a negative effect on their businesses. Three out of four said the 43-day US government shutdown, which came to an end during the survey period, had a minor impact or no impact.
- Fifty-three per cent said they had the right number of employees; 13% said they had too many workers; and 32% said they had too few employees. Those figures remained largely unchanged from last quarter.
- This quarter, slightly more finance decision-makers (48%) said they were expecting to expand their businesses over the next 12 months, up from 46%.
— To comment on this article or to suggest an idea for another article, contact Bryan Strickland at Bryan.Strickland@aicpa-cima.com.