The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) projection for global economic growth in 2025 is 3.2%, in line with 2024, according to numbers released Tuesday.
Estimated growth in the US economy is 2.8% this year, trailing only Spain’s 2.9% for 2024 among advanced economies. The US economy will “revert toward its potential” in 2025, at a projected 2.2%, according to the IMF. In the UK, economic growth is predicted to be 1.1% this year and 1.5% in 2025.
The growth outlook is stable in emerging markets and developing economies — about 4.2% this year and next — with continued robust performance from emerging Asia. The overall growth for advanced economies this year is 1.8%, with the same projected for 2025.
“The global economy has demonstrated resilience overall, but this masks uneven performance across regions and lingering fragilities,” the IMF said. “The negative supply shocks to the global economy since 2020 have had lasting effects on output and inflation, with varied impacts across individual countries and country groups.”
This resilience, the report explains, has emerged from the stabilising of cyclical imbalances, but further geopolitical unrest could affect the long-term resilience of supply chains.
Other risks to the global economy include monetary policy remaining too tight for an extended period, more sovereign debt stress in emerging economies, and a resurgence of social unrest across regions.
The IMF said that, across the world, inflation was becoming less of a concern. “In most countries, inflation is now hovering close to central bank targets, paving the way for monetary easing across major central banks,” the IMF said.
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