This year’s Global Risks Report from the World Economic Forum (WEF) carries the same familiar warnings as last year’s edition. Strikingly similar to the 2023 report, the long-term risks of this decade all focus on climate-change impacts.
According to the report, the top four severe global long-term risks (over ten years), consistent with last year’s findings, are climate-related: extreme weather events, critical change to earth systems, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, and natural resource shortages.
The 2024 report brought together leading insights on the evolving global risks landscape from 1,490 experts across academia, business, government, and other areas.
Climate change poses the most severe risks down the line, but experts warn that global economies may feel the effects sooner. “After the hottest Northern Hemisphere summer in recorded history in 2023, two-thirds of respondents selected extreme weather (66%) as the top risk faced in 2024,” the report said.
Environmental risks could hit the “point of no return”, the report warns, as a “dissonance in perceptions of urgency” amongst key decision-makers heightens the risk of missing key moments of intervention. These missed moments may result in long-term, irreversible changes to planetary systems, the report said.
The report also highlights concerning factors that could contribute to ongoing political instability, especially in the shorter term: “Emerging as the most severe global risk anticipated over the next two years, foreign and domestic actors alike will leverage misinformation and disinformation to further widen societal and political divides.”
Fifty-three per cent of respondents said content generated by artificial intelligence (AI) will create a “fertile breeding ground” for misinformation and disinformation to polarise communities, societies, and countries. “Misinformation and disinformation may radically disrupt electoral processes in several economies over the next two years,” the report said. “A growing distrust of information, as well as media and governments as sources, will deepen polarised views — a vicious cycle that could trigger civil unrest and possibly confrontation.”
While the purpose of misinformation and disinformation is to mislead communities, there are opportunities to spread awareness, the report acknowledged. “While it is difficult for single countries to control the diffusion of AI-generated content,” the report said, “it is in their power to include AI literacy in public education systems, and to prioritise the issues of understanding AI’s capabilities and identifying trustworthy sources of information.”
The report emphasises that the interaction between the short-term and long-term risks of today could create “a multiplicity of futures”, making readiness for the challenges more difficult. “The impacts of extreme weather may deplete available economic resources to mitigate and adapt to climate change,” the report said. “Increasing vulnerabilities, brought about by resource stress, conflict, and increasing polarisation, could expose societies and whole economies to crime and corruption.”
Governments, societies, and decision-makers must work together to implement real change, the report said. If a material number of people take action concurrently, such aggregate efforts “have the power to alter market dynamics and move the dial on climate-change mitigation”, the report said. But businesses must follow suit: “If a critical number of companies commit to building ethical supply chains, respect for human rights and labour standards will improve worldwide.”
— To comment on this article or to suggest an idea for another article, contact Steph Brown at Stephanie.Brown@aicpa-cima.com.