Finance leaders in business and industry are notably optimistic about the US economy in 2025, a new survey shows.
Two-thirds of executives expressed optimism about the domestic economy, a dramatic rise from just 26% expressing optimism the previous quarter, according to the AICPA & CIMA Business and Industry Economic Outlook Survey, released Thursday.
The respondents — mainly CEOs, CFOs, and controllers — also have a brighter outlook for their own businesses, with higher revenue and profit projections for the coming 12 months and more expansion planned.
Optimists and pessimists both cited the presidential election as reasons for their sentiment. The survey was sent to business and industry leaders the day after the election, and it closed 26 November with a total of 273 responses. Optimists cite the likelihood of less regulation and changes in tax policy. Pessimists are concerned about the potential impact of tariffs.
Sentiment about the global economy also rose sharply, from 19% last quarter to 41% now expressing optimism.
Executives’ revenue and profit projections have increased, with revenue forecast to rise at its highest rate in the survey since the second quarter of 2022, and profit at the highest in at least three years. Revenue is projected to grow 3.3% in the coming 12 months, up from 1.5% last quarter and 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Similarly, profit growth forecasts that languished at 0.5% one year ago and 0.2% one quarter ago have recovered a full two points to a forecast of 2.2% growth for 2025.
Own-company optimism improved from 41% to 53%, and a growing number of respondents said their organisations planned to hire. Thirty-eight per cent of organisations of all sizes need employees, while only 18% remain hesitant to hire. Twenty per cent of companies have too few employees and plan to hire, up from 14% in the third quarter.
Inflation is a persistent concern, vaulting back to No. 1 on the list of top challenges. The rest of the top five challenges are, in order: employee and benefits costs; availability of skilled personnel; materials and equipment costs; and domestic economic conditions.
Labour costs are the top inflation-related risk factor, chosen by 40% of respondents. Interest rates have declined on the list of inflation-related risk factors from 31% a year ago to 18% now.
Despite those challenges, expansion plans have bounced back. The number of executives planning to expand rose from 44% last quarter to 57%, and those with plans to contract their business declined from 27% to 17%.
— Miti Ampoma is a senior content writer at AICPA & CIMA. To comment on this article or to suggest an idea for another article, contact Neil Amato at Neil.Amato@aicpa-cima.com.